Moon Missions: Starship Launch Count Estimate
A NASA safety panel has offered a specific figure for the number of Starship flights needed to support a lunar landing.
By Rafael Ortega ·
NASA's Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel, a group providing independent oversight on agency risk, convened for its quarterly meeting on Thursday. During the session, the panel addressed the Artemis Program's operational requirements. The discussion focused on the specific logistics involved in preparing a Starship-based lunar lander for a mission to the Moon.
Charlie Precourt, a panel member and former NASA astronaut, provided a specific projection regarding the flight manifest. He estimated that 22 Starship launches would be required to support a mission involving a lunar landing. This figure quantifies the fueling process necessary for a Starship-based lander in low-Earth orbit to depart for the Moon, land, and return to lunar orbit.
The projected launch count addresses a long-standing question regarding the Artemis Program's flight cadence. NASA has historically declined to provide a firm number concerning the propellant transfers needed for such a mission. Officials have cited a lack of certainty regarding the exact requirements for fueling a Starship-based vehicle to transit to the Moon, land, and return to lunar orbit.
Previous estimates regarding the necessary flight volume have varied significantly over time. In 2023, Lisa Watson-Morgan, then-director of NASA’s Human Landing System, indicated that officials possessed a general idea but were reluctant to specify a figure. She later characterized the required number as being in the high single digits to the low double digits, a range suggesting roughly a dozen launches.
Other officials have previously cited figures in the high teens for similar operations. The operational plan for fueling a Starship-based lunar lander involves a specific sequence of events. SpaceX would launch a depot Starship, followed by 11 tanker Starships to fully load it with liquid oxygen and methane propellant for a lunar voyage.
The expectation has consistently been that SpaceX would dramatically improve the lift capacity of Starship to bring down the number of tanker flights. However, concerns have emerged among some NASA officials that such performance enhancements may not be materializing, or at least not materializing soon enough. These concerns relate to whether SpaceX’s Starship rocket can play a meaningful role in returning humans to the Moon for NASA as part of Artemis this decade.
Charlie Precourt’s estimate of 22 launches was shared during a discussion regarding risks associated with the Artemis Program. The figure represents a new projection concerning the number of Starship launches required to fuel a Starship-based lunar lander in low-Earth orbit. NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel held this quarterly meeting on Thursday to address these operational matters.
Source: Ars Technica
